Market Update: Big Purple Crayons

A couple weeks ago the market was in steady decline, making consistently lower lows and showing a drip drip indicative of a lack of confidence. The narrative was rife with talk of the weak dollar, expensive gasoline, banking and mortgage crises, brokerage write-downs, etc, etc. With all the negative sentiment I took out the big purple crayons and did some multi-decade technical analysis-- Eric reminds it's always a sobering idea-- warning to consider taking cover for a prolonged downtrend with the SPY trading below a declining 200-day moving average.

At the end of the blog entry on July 26th I concluded, however, that the following few trading days would be important:

I truly feel the next five days will determine the market posture for several weeks. I am an inveterate market timer and it has served me well for a number of years. The 200-day moving average cross-over has me spooked, no question, but I am not out of the market as I type this missive.

The last days of July and now early August have shown exceptional strength in the market indices. Higher lows and now a critical breakout above significant resistance at SPY $128.80. The small cap and tech indices are even stronger. This bodes well and I am fortunate that I did not pile out of the market on July 26th.



Yes, many hurdles exist to further upward movement in the stock market, but stocks are often the leading indicator out of recessions and while unemployment may continue to rise for another quarter, the market indices could continue to show strength. The added narrative is the demand destruction of oil coupled with a bottomed out dollar now gaining strength, which should bring commodity prices down at least in the short term and this will act to support stocks.

The risk in the market is still significant and bears very close observation, but I'll stay net long for now. Big purple crayons are fun to play with, but trading and investing often need a finer point.

This information is for entertainment purposes only. Anybody who takes investment advice (or any advice for that matter) from strangers on the internet needs their meds adjusted.

Pssst... Barack... Jim Webb for Veep

Dear Senator Obama,

I know that you have been logging onto The Kalamazoo Post almost daily for the choice buzz, and while I've entertained the idea that you may be here for my take on Ozzie Guillen's latest rant/ ejection/ fine/ controversy/ call for firing from Jay Mariotti... I realize now that you have been looking for my pick for your running mate.

Sorry for the delay, but here it is: Jim Webb. If you are the The One, then I suppose he is the The Two. Besides, if he's okay with Fred, then he's okay with me. This election is about salvaging whatever credibility as a nation we have left so don't encumber your ticket with some slick politician. We are counting on you to make a good first decision, unlike Al Gore's in 2000-- gag.

See you at the Convention,
Tony

Tha Savaging of General Clark

This video is an excellent compilation of clips demonstrating the perfection of the type of defense that Kerry should have mounted against the Swiftboaters four years ago. Come out with guns blasting, and never let up. It worked and now Wesley Clark is silenced. This won't necessarily win the election for McCain but is takes Clark, the one guy who could have stood up to McCain's war record and tempered the importance of his being a POW, out of the picture.




This is masterful stuff really and the clip not only shows right-wing whores (Hannity, Kelliann Fitzpatrick, Ollie North, Rove, etc) bemoaning Clark's comments, but it also shows Democratic-leaning moderates (Mika Brzezinski) and outright anti-McCain partisans (Rachel Maddow) chiming in with "Swiftboat" comparisons. Even the usually rational Bob Schieffer likened Clark's comments to "denigrating McCain's war record." This was nothing like the Swiftboat bullshit which really did attempt to negate Kerry's war experience. Clark was making a rational argument about the value of war time experience as a soldier as it pertains to executive decision-making.

The Republicans hire pit-bulls who know the way to handle these attacks. They have a grease board with all the possible attacks that could be made and the various responses. It's well-coordinated, ferocious and effective. But such responses and rhetorical techniques are nothing new. I'll let the Communications professor enlighten us, but I seem to remember that Cicero was famous for the mastery of such rhetoric in the Roman Senate. History rhymes.

The power and money at stake in the US elections is enormous and exponentially more than even 20 years ago. These campaign people are the most talented at what they do and their incentive is greater than ever. Perhaps the lesson in this is that no office in the world should be as powerful as the US presidency is today. The rest of the world is a little freaked by the damage that one person can do and merely electing Barack Obama will not assuage their trepidation, only allow them to breath a sigh of relief for four years. The US system of such unchecked executive power has become, under Bush, structurally threatening to the world. While 70% of Americans and 80% of Iraqis want US soldiers to pull out of Iraq, and the Iraqi Parliament and Prime Minister have called for time tables for withdrawal, the US leadership has said this is not feasible and will not be done. The opinion of one person-- Cheney or Bush or whoever is running the show-- has promulgated a criminal war, destabilized the world's oil supply, promoted nuclear tensions, instituted torture as modus operandi, holds prisoners illegally, etc.

These guys are just plain bad people.

What are the Packers thinking? (Free advice from a Bears fan)

The greatest quarterback of the era wants to play on your team, so what should you do? Hmmm.

Well, if you're the Green Bay Packers you tell him, "No thanks."

I suppose a 13-3 record, winning the division and having a quarterback with the second or third highest quarterback rating isn't enough. Aaron Rodgers, an unproven career back-up... yeah much better.

Remember the pain of the Don Majkowski years? I guess not. Well, your neighbors to the south have been living a similar nightmare for a couple decades and the terror is something we deal with 16 Sundays a year, every year. So let me clue you in...

Helloooo... this is a no-brainer, folks. If the guy who built your franchise wants one more season, then you give him one more season. Period. So what if he's a little quirky: genius has its price. Nobody ever told Einstein to get a haircut.

As for Aaron Rodgers... he'll get over it.




There, that's the last advice you'll get from this Bears fan.

(Jesus, do you people know anything but cheese and toilet paper up there?)

Sell stocks now... according to this simple indicator [Update below]

I've mentioned before about the danger of the current stock market, especially for those with a buy-and-hold mentality and retirement funds. The mantra has always been that young investors with a longer time horizon, or those with a more aggressive investing strategy, should just continue to buy stocks regardless of the economic or analytic factors.

Occasionally we see a market, however, that is screaming a certain signal, and I would argue that now the danger signals are starting to blare.

Background

The 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 has turned negative and started sloping downward in January of this year. More ominously, the S&P index price has dropped below that 200-day moving average. This is a rare occurrence, and has preceded prolonged market turmoil in the past.

Let's look at the history with three concrete examples over the past ten years.

Strategy	July 1998	Jan 2001	Sept 2003	Now	10-Year Return
Hold Bonds	$500,000	$564,000	$632,300	$725,000	4.5% Annually
Hold Stocks	$500,000	$574,000	$534,600	$640,000	2.7% Annually
Two-Trades	$500,000	$574,000	$696,500	$909,000	8.2% Annually

The SPY exchange traded fund mirrors the broad market index S&P 500. Over the past 10 years, $500,000 invested with a buy-and-hold strategy would have become $640,000 with dividends invested, for an annualized return of 2.7%. Holding only safe US treasury bonds only for that period of time would have done better, yielding 4.5% annually, or $725,000.

If one were cognizant of the broad market direction as represented by the 200-day moving average, that investor could have made two trades and increased his/her return over $180,000 over a safe bond investment, and an eye-popping $264,000 versus stocks. Why is this important, and why am I harping about it now? We'll see.

History tells us that stocks tend to outperform bonds when the stock prices are trading above their 200-day moving average, and bonds tend to outperform stocks when the stock price is trading below it's 200-day moving average.

Two-Trades Strategy

The strategy is to sell stocks when the S&P 500 index drops below the 200-day moving average and buy them back when the index crosses back above the 200-day moving average. This has occurred only one time each in the last ten years.

Looking at the graph at the top of the page, July of 1998 was a heady time in the stock market with many financial advisers cautioning people to be careful of the market with the long upward trajectory that had been occurring in the 1990's and others pounding the table to buy, buy, buy. If an investors had eschewed cautioned and dumped his/her $500,000 lump sum into the S&P at that time, they would have had a nice run to 2000, with the SPY stock price going from $118 to $155 at the market top in March 2000. I picked the high for the month of July 1998 as the buy price just to be conservative.

From the March 2000 high, our investor would have continued to hold until the S&P crossed below the 200-day moving average in October 2000, a 12% drop from the absolute high. No investor is expected to catch the highest point to sell, in fact I would argue that most investors are not watching the daily or weekly machinations of the market. So, my assumption is that even the most astute investor would not have noticed the cross-over until the December 2000 low of $126 (again trying to be realistic and conservative)-- two months later and a full 9 months after the market high.

Why are these time frames important? Because that is exactly where we are now after the recent run.

In December 2000, our investor would have sold all his S&P 500 fund and put the proceeds, now $574,000 into a US Treasury bond fund--- I picked the conservative Vanguard Long-Term US Treasury Fund (VUSTX) for this example. The money would have stayed secure, earning 4.5% interest annually as the S&P 500 index sat below its 200-day moving average.

The S&P, represented by SPY, dropped to the low $80's and after a few weeks of gains crossed back above the 200-day moving average in April 2003 with an SPY stock price of $89... fully 29% below the sell price in December 2000. Nobody would expect even the most obsessed investor to notice this cross-over, so I assumed that they would not have gotten back into the market for another 5 months, until September 2003, and will use the month's high price of $102 as the buy-in price for the SPY, again trying to be conservative. For those 34 months in US Treasuries the money pile would have earned 4.5% annually for a total of $696,500.

Putting the $696,500 back into the S&P 500 in September 2003 would give us now in July 2008 a total of $909,000 (including dividends) in the SPY!

A buy-and-hold strategy would have given us only $640,000--- $269,000 below the two-trades strategy.

Why am I talking about this now?

In January, the S&P crossed below it's 200-day moving average for only the second time in ten years. This has been shown to be a harbinger for a prolonged downtrend in the market. Currently, we are 19% below the October 2007 high, and 16% below the January 2008 cross-over point. My recommendation is to sell stock funds now and go into safe treasuries until the market crosses back above the 200-day moving average with some type of conviction.

Don't mention this to your financial adviser without expecting him/ her to chastise you about the perils of market-timing and the "advantages of buying for the long term", especially if your are a long ways away from retirement. Remember, some advisers have a financial gain in their clients being invested in stocks and stock mutual funds. Some advisers are rewarded for frequent trading into and out of stocks. Still others are more honest, but have been indoctrinated into the brotherhood with the belief in the almighty market and are too willing to take the hard times (with your hard-earned coin) as well as the good times.

I'm not going to bore you with all the narrative about impending recessions, bank failures, imploding housing market, exploding national debt, etc, etc, you can read Barry Ritholtz for that. But I will point out that the S&P 500 has hit an important inflection point from technical analysis, and the red warning lights are flashing, so proceed at your own risk.

Caveats

What if I am wrong? Sure, the market does whatever it wants and this may be a profound bottom with the coming months being the rally of all rallies. Yes, I could be manifestly wrong (there, I said it.). That possibility would see the SPY quickly cross back above the 200-day moving average and we would find ourselves trading back into the market in a few months. I would argue that while that rosy scenario is possible and would see us miss out on a few percentage point gains, the real risk of losing another is 20% in the SPY from here is even more probable. The downside risk of holding US treasuries is minimal.

Are there better strategies? Sure, we could devise all types of historical models that look at gold, commodities, real estate, foreign equities, emerging markets, international bonds and currencies, small vs. large cap stocks in various markets.... but I would argue that that is overthinking it. The beauty of using the 200-day moving average crossover is that this is simple; it is an event that occurs rarely and appears to have had some predictive value in the past. This is not science, however, and we must be cognizant that are basing a decision on two events in the last ten years and thus attempting to predict the future on very little data.

What could be the worse case scenario in this strategy? The absolute worse case scenario is that the day after you buy US Treasuries the US government announces it is going to default on all of its debt thus making your "ultra-safe" treasuries which are backed by the "full faith and credit of the United States" essentially worthless. While extremely unlikely, I suppose it is possible. Of course, if that happens we would see a massive economic calamity and the SPY would plummet as well. The only safe investment would be gold, perhaps silver, and an assault rifle, a la Mad Max.

Other negative scenarios? The US Federal Reserve could find religion and begin to raise interest rates in order to strengthen the US dollar, which likewise would depress the capital value of your treasury holdings since new money would be going into the new debt which would carry a higher interest rate. However, an abrupt increase in the federal funds rate would likewise lower the SPY and slow the economy as capital for investment becomes more expensive. In such a scenario, the dollar would increase in value, thus making cash king, but all other investments would weaken.

Can this model be tweaked in order to take advantage of alternate likely scenarios? Sure, but any tweaking would be based on unprovable assumptions and, more importantly, would complicate the simple process of trading only a couple times which is the true beauty of this strategy. Having said that, one could take this 200-day SPY cross-over as a cue to merely decrease their stock holdings in this environment and instead of going 100% into Treasuries, could stay in diversified in stocks but increase holdings in short bonds, cash and gold.

In short, the risk management model tells us the market is in trouble. Even if you eschew this advice and keep your stock holdings, at least be careful about new money into the market at this juncture.

-----

Conclusion: I truly feel the next five days will determine the market posture for several weeks. I am an inveterate market timer and it has served me well for a number of years. The 200-day moving average cross-over has me spooked, no question, but I am not out of the market as I type this missive. My retirement is currently allocated at 40% large cap, 15% mid/small cap, 12% international, 18% government bonds, 11% cash and 4% REIT's. I had been largely cash and treasuries from the fall until this Spring when I began to trickle back into stocks. If the current rally fails, say SPY under $120 on high volume, then I will look for opportune exits in the coming weeks and likely stay out of the market until the moving averages recover.

[UPDATE Aug 08, 2008]

This information is for entertainment purposes only. Anybody who takes investment advice (or any advice for that matter) from strangers on the internet, needs their head examined.

Cryptic stock market analysis

The Yamada double top thesis is compelling.

The Larry Kudlow indicator has something to do with how shrill he becomes about all the reasons why the market "should" go up. The louder he gets, the lower the market will go. Dry drunk.

My hunch based on nothing: If the XLF goes below 20.50 today for any period of time, say, after noon, then it will drop like a rock into the close.

Will SPY hit 134 or 120 first? If it hits 12O, then it might go to the 2003 lows, or at least 100 in a rapid way. Only by SPY going to 134 will it have a chance to turn the 200-day MA around.

Brian Shannon also pointed out that as long as SPY is below 200-day MA, it's a dangerous market.

In some ways, I would rather see SPY hit 120 because it would be a much easier trade longer term... declining 200-day, SPY below 200-day... easy call to 105 or maybe lower. If SPY hits 120, then I could buy SDS and go golf.

Market hitting 134 would be a harder one to trade or invest.

If McCain is Elected, Who will Run the Country?

I have always liked John McCain, and I have voted for him in two separate Republican primaries (2000 and 2008), but I cannot support him in the general election. He has served this nation admirably, fought in a war that was difficult to reckon, sustained torture that he could have avoided and he left a piece of his ass in Viet Nam. John McCain is a hero's hero, and he gets my everlasting respect, but, alas... he will not get any more of my votes.

Much like Ronald Reagan, if elected McCain will take office at an advanced age and the evidence shows that he is not at the top of his game. Reagan lost the reins of government along with his mentation somewhere around 1985 and thus allowed a criminal element to run a foreign policy agenda that was not consistent with our national interests. These usurpers backed dictators in our name, sold weapons to terrorists in Iran and assassinated democratically elected leaders in central and South America, all while Ronald Reagan's cerebrum wasted away, unbeknownst to us.

We cannot afford such a travesty again. Listen to this and tell me if John McCain's processes of cognition are intact enough to run this nation:



And in kind of an eery happenstance, Aricept has an Alzheimer's add that features a John McCain look-a-like:














[At the end I expected to hear "I'm John McCain and I, ummm, approve this message, right, dear?"]

Weird. And I would have thought the drug companies wanted another demented Republican at the helm; god knows they've done very well with the current one.

Fiddling While Rome Burns

The usually calm and sardonic Barry Ritholz can always be counted on for his rational surmise of the financial markets and big picture economic views. Every once in a while, however, we are treated to Ritholtz Unchained, and today is one such day. Read the whole thing, but here are the snippets:

"This is financial incompetence writ on a scale far grander than anything seen for centuries.

"As a nation, our institutions have failed us: Under Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve slept through the most reckless and irresponsible expansion of bank lending in history for reasons of ideological purity. His opposition to the Fed’s regulatory role reached the point of malfeasance long ago. ..

"There is a choice to be made: Either we regulate the Banks, or leave it to the vagaries of the free markets to punish those who trade with, or place their assets in the wrong institutions. But for God's sake, do not give us the worst of both worlds -- do not allow banks the freedom to make horrific but preventable mistakes (i.e., only lending money to those who can pay it back), but then expect the taxpayers to foot the trillion dollar bill...

"...We are the world's largest debtor nation, and as such, we depend upon the kindness of strangers -- be they Japanese or Europeans or Abu Dhabians -- or even former communists.

"Back in the States, something beyond cognitive dissonance is occurring -- this is full blown case of dementia unfolding in the public sphere. When this era of excess and absurdity is treated by historians in the future, the question I expect to be asked most is not why many of these people weren't jailed for their financial felonies. Rather, I expect them to wonder why so many of these folk weren't placed in protective custody, and heavily medicated, for the only rational explanation for their statements and behaviors is that they have gone so far beyond the bend as to be completely and totally insane. ..

"...Books will be written about this period of time, and our descendants will wonder in awe as to how this was allowed to happen. Tulips got nothing on us! Its not just the total dollar value of the losses that have exceeded all other global fits of financial madness combined, but rather, how so many warning signs were so blithely ignored by so many and for so long. What was wrong with these people, the authors and historians will wonder. Did the antibiotics in the food supply drive them mad? Did the High Fructose Corn Syrup compromise their ability to think? Some form of viral plague? Roid rage? What else could have created such a mass delusion amongst not just the populace, but their leadership and institutions?"


Here, here! We are overdue for such genuine healthy outrage!

Sometimes, One Must Make a Stand

Heroism takes many forms.

Tiger the Taxpayer

Should this man really be smiling?

Sometime in the next 20 months, Tiger Woods will become the first billionaire athlete. The remarkable thing about this feat is that he has done it solely on the power of his paychecks-- winnings and endorsements.

As the first billionaire to achieve the status in this manner, that means he has paid an inordinate amount of money in taxes versus, say, Bill Gates or Warren Buffet who have made their pile almost exclusively on capital appreciation. One estimate puts Tiger's tax bill upwards of 45%, versus the 15% Messrs Gates and Buffet, and nearly every Wall Street hedge fund manager, pay on long term capital gains.

This brings up a fundamental item: The abundant taxation in this country on actively generated income, in other words, working for a living. Why is that? Europe has a greater emphasis on consumption tax with their value-added tax and I would argue that passive income should be taxed at least as much as workers' paychecks.

The incentives in our system are against working at a job, and favor generating passive income through investment and speculation. And while investment may be important, is it really more important than productive employment? Tiger's tragedy is emblematic of every working stiff in the country.

Poor Mr. and Mrs. Woods.

Obama's National Service Plan: Silly but not Slavery

I have never wanted to like a presidential candidate as much as I want to like Barack Obama. He's a fresh face on the body politic, a Bears fan and a White Sox fan. What could ever be wrong with that?

If only he had read the Constitution sometime during his stint as a law student, editor of the Harvard Law Review and Constitutional Law lecturer. In addition to relinquishing our Fourth Amendment protections against illegal search and seizure while immunizing telecommunications companies who engage in such searches, now he is expanding federal budget support for faith-based institutions and also calling for a National Service Plan (fast forward to about 18:30 on the above video) that encumbers students into "service" outside the classroom. I'm getting ready to cry, "Enough!"

Obama's latest salvo is to promise to enact a National Service Plan that compels high school and college students to volunteer for community service. He pledges to “set a goal for all American middle and high school students to perform 50 hours of service a year, and for all college students to perform 100 hours of service a year.”

On it's face this seems benign enough, encouraging kids to give back to the community. Who can argue with that?

Here's the problem. Obama wants to tie federal funds for school districts to the notion that all the kids will participate in after school volunteer work. This will surely lead to less time away from the actual purpose of these federally subsidized schools: reading, writing and arithmetic. And this distraction would occur in exactly the school districts whose students likely need more time doing these basics.

Obama cites evidence that students who volunteer tend to do better in school and tend to go higher up the educational ladder into college. He assigns some type of cause and effect relationship to the act of community service in school bringing about better achievement later in life, which is completely illogical. What if we instead interpreted the statistic that the kids who are destined to go to college in the first place are more likely to have participated in volunteer work at a younger age and the act of volunteering-- while being somewhat predictive-- has no material beneficial causation on the kid's eventual educational level? The latter argument actually makes more sense to me, and I think David Hume would agree. I doubt community service causes good grades, and while I may believe that good students are more likely to have volunteered... I definitely know that causation could never be proven one way or another.

Furthermore, compelling unmotivated kids to pursue non-academic work may have several unintended consequences: possibly higher drop-out rates, poorer grades and decreased federal funding for districts that most need it. So, what's the point, Mr. Obama?

Of course, we can always rely on right wing slobs like Jonah Goldberg to take the extreme view, and Goldberg has gone so far as to call Obama's National Service Plan "slavery." It's not slavery, but Obama's plan is silly at best, and counter-productive at worst.

Obama's plan calls for $4000 per year for college students if they perform 100 hours of community service. Slavery? Hardly. In fact, as a taxpayer my question is rather what college student is worth $40 of tax revenue per hour to the community? Answer: not many. Perhaps incentives for students to pursue necessary majors would make more sense.

My other question for the Senator is why pick on students to perform this supposedly necessary community service? Students-- or at least successful students-- are busy enough without ramping up their work load even "just 2 hours a week." And even if they're not busy and can afford the small time commitment, who is the federal government to compel the use of their time? If the volunteer work is truly necessary, then why not get the lazy bastards who sit around the trailer park to go out and bang a few nails and pick up cups on the interstate? And leave college students alone. What about compelling high school dropouts, unemployed mortgage lenders, white collar criminals and even shrill right wing political pundits to "volunteer"? If the experience is oh-so beneficial, surely those on the margins would be well-served volunteering their time-- maybe even more so than the already achieving students.

This really goes back to the purpose of the federal government, which according to my recollection is to regulate interstate commerce, defend our borders and engage in foreign policy (none of which we are currently doing very well I might add.) This mission has been expanded to also manage large-scale socially necessary programs like Social Security and Medicare, which makes sense to me although strict Constitutional devotees have raised argument over the years. Even John F. Kennedy's Peace Corps for college graduates was really an offshoot of our diplomatic missions around the world and thus fell under the purview of the federal government. But Obama's National Service, not so much.

If inner city kids need better schools, then build them better schools. I would even argue that it is an issue of national security to ensure that every kid can read, write, add and subtract-- and, again, this is not being done very well at present. If college kids need financial support, then provide it and perhaps make it contingent on something tangible to our national welfare such as certain fields of study like engineering and science, achievement of good grades or completion of a degree. Even compelling college students to pay back service once they've completed their studies makes more sense than to encumber them while they should be focused on getting their degree.

Six months ago, I would would have been hard-pressed to even imagine how I could hesitate to vote Democratic this November. In 2004 I cast my first ever straight party vote against the Republican authoritarians. Now we are seeing the silly side of liberal authoritarianism, and it's getting sillier by the day.

The Obama Revolution that isn't

[UPDATE I and UPDATE 2 below]

I love Keith Olbermann. For the last couple years he has been one of the few people on TV to speak truth to power... other than, of course, the fellas over at Comedy Channel. Now maybe it's just the silliness of the campaign season, but for some reason Olbermann seems to be losing his usual vice-like grip on truth and justice.

Nobody writing opinion today is more correct than Glenn Greenwald. He has been stalwart in pointing out the failures of our government officials, both Republican and Democrat, and he has been a constant fair critic of their craven media enablers. David Gregory dancing with Karl Rove, Sean Hannity blindly supporting whatever it is that Sean Hannity blindly supports... and now Greenwald has directed his pit bull jaws on Keith Olbermann who has inexplicably developed a mancrush on the venerable Democratic Presidential nominee, Barack Obama.

Barack Obama had said that he would filibuster any FISA bill before the Senate that granted immunity to telecommunication companies that broke the law by spying on American citizen. That was January when Senator Obama was pandering to the anti-Bush civil libertarians in his party. Now Presidential Nominee Obama has called the current bill ---which grants immunity to the telecoms--- a "good compromise." And Olbermann, instead of calling him out on this discrepancy, has defended this flip-flop as some necessary ingredient to the election season stew.

Greenwald points out that this wonderful transformation of Hope that seemed imminent with the nomination of Senator Obama, now is appearing more and more like Bush-lite. The same old torture, the same old abrogation of the fourth amendment, the same old jingoist pabulum, the same old faith-based initiatives, etc, etc:

In the last two weeks alone, Obama has done the following:

*intervened in a Democratic Congressional primary to support one of the worst Bush-enabling Blue Dogs over a credible, progressive challenger;

* announced his support for Bush's FISA bill, reversing himself completely on this issue;

* sided with the Scalia/Thomas faction in two highly charged Supreme Court decisions;

* repudiated Wesley Clark and embraced the patently false media narrative that Clark had "dishonored McCain's service" (and for the best commentary I've seen, by far, on the Clark matter, see this appropriately indignant piece by Iraq veteran Brandon Friedman);

* condemned MoveOn.org for its newspaper advertisement criticizing Gen. Petraeus;

* defended his own patriotism by impugning the patriotism of others, specifically those in what he described as the "the so-called counter-culture of the Sixties" for "attacking the symbols, and in extreme cases, the very idea, of America itself" and -- echoing Jeanne Kirkpatrick's 1984 RNC speech -- "blaming America for all that was wrong with the world";

* unveiled plans "to expand President Bush's program steering federal social service dollars to religious groups and -- in a move sure to cause controversy . . . letting religious charities that receive federal funding consider religion in employment decisions," a move that could "invite a storm of protest from those who view such faith requirements as discrimination" -- something not even the Bush faith programs allowed.

That's quite a two weeks.

With transcendent hope like this we may as well nominate Dick Cheney as Obama's running mate. And Olbermann can serve as Press Secretary.

UPDATE I July 3rd:

Daniel Larison at Eunomia has chimed in on the Obama reversal on FISA:

Having won the nomination, he has probably calculated that his progressive backers will not break with him now and will have nowhere to go (the fear of electing McCain is too powerful for most of them to permit protest voting), so he has positioned himself to avoid confronting either executive power or corporate interests more than he must. He will not yield to his supporters’ demands on this, because I expect he does not see them as a threat to his political advancement, and he will be lauded by “mainstream” columnists for rebuffing the left and showing that he is “responsible” and, yes, “serious.”

This reminds me of the joke about two campers rushing out of their tent when they hear an approaching bear. One camper stops to put on his shoes and the second camper says, "Why bother putting on your shoes, we'll never be able to outrun the bear!" At which point the first camper replies, "The bear? I don't have to outrun the bear."

And such it is. The political maelstrom created by the permanent abandonment of habeus corpus has created a situation whereby the next Democratic President doesn't have to be concerned with civil liberties, except to the extent that he is only slightly more concerned that his Republican opponent. Who else will folks like me vote for if not Obama?

PS (from Larison): Russ Feingold explains why the surveillance program itself is dangerous.


UPDATE 2 July 6:

Even the usually myopic Obama apologist, Frank Rich, has realized that the presumptive Democratic nominee may have "jumped the shark":

For all the hyperventilation on the left about Mr. Obama’s rush to the center — some warranted, some not — what’s more alarming is how small-bore and defensive his campaign has become. Whether he’s reaffirming his long-held belief in faith-based programs or fudging his core convictions about government snooping, he is drifting away from the leadership he promised and into the focus-group-tested calculation patented by Mark Penn in his disastrous campaign for Hillary Clinton. Mr. Obama’s Wednesday address calling for renewed public service is unassailable in principle but inadequate to the daunting size of the serious American crisis at hand. The speech could have been — and has been — delivered by any candidate of either party in any election year since 1960.

I would argue that instead of a "rush to the center", the abrogation of basic rights granted in the Constitution is rather an example of lurching headlong into the authoritarian camp of the right wing.

Kalamazoo's Radio Goes to the the Darkside

In Kalamazoo we have been blessed with some of the most progressive AM radio during the afternoon drive time on WKZO-AM590. Dave Jaconette entertains us with his mix of news, movie reviews and comment which has always included a balanced and polite repartee between 3pm and 6pm. Unfortunately, the braintrust in charge of programming has cut the last hour of Dave's gabfest to start airing blowhard Glenn Beck from 5pm to 8pm. Feel free to voice your complaint to Jay the program director at jay@kzo.com. Here's my recent missive:

Jay,

Say it ain't so! At first I thought it was static from a fast moving nubula skirting earth's atmosphere, but no... that noise was the shrill meandering mind of some narcissistic right-wing vulgarian polluting my car's interior with bilious puke. Glenn Beck!!?? No freakin' way! It's bad enough I have to quickly flip through from CNN to the Weather Channel in order to avoid this hair-brained nutcase during my dinner hour, now he's on one of my radio's "favorite" buttons during my drive home!?

And where the heck is Dave? There are evenings when the rational intonations of Mr. Jaconette are the only thing keeping me from road-raging some imbecile on I-131. I guess I'll just have to drag my under-50 professional male demographic butt over to NPR where it belongs. I miss Dave already.

I'll NEVER listen to Beck. NEVER!

Signed...

PS: If there were any doubt about the mental instability of Mr. Beck, just view the Youtube video of his stuporous whining about his "botched surgery." Is this really what Kalamazoo needs?

Revenge Sweep!

The White Sox defended their home turf on the Southside with a 5-1 win tonight at US Cellular and a sweep of the weekend series against the cross town rivals Cubs. Good hitting and excellent pitching were the key for Ozzie Guillen's White Sox. After a grueling week Cubs manager Lou Piniella finally lost his cool tonight and got booted in the second inning for arguing balls and strikes.

No question, the Cubbies are a good team with the best record in baseball despite temporarily losing their ace starter Carlos Zambrano. His rehab seems almost complete and Zambrano is slated to be back in the line up later this week.

This weekend, however, belonged to the Southsiders, with big hits tonight by Carlos Quentin, Brian Anderson and Jim Thome who all homered in the effort. Starting pitcher Mark Buehrle scattered four hits for the win while Scott Linebrink and closer Bobby Jenks mopped up.

Cub fans seem hopeful as always that this is (finally) their year. The season is young, and we all know how badly this will end for the Northside fans. I know the White Sox are in a tough division and the Tigers are firing up their artillery after a sluggish start, so a successful outcome is hardly wrapped up for the Sox. But I have no illusion as to the Cubs' fate and have no doubt about their eventual fold. It's downright criminal what the management of the Cubs does to their fans. Get their hopes up, then dash them into the rocks.

So, Cub fans take this sweep for what it is: The preview to your choke that is all but assured to happen come September at the latest.

Wait til next year!

The Ironic Justice Scalia

By a slim margin, the Supreme Court upheld the Constitutional guarantee of habeas corpus, to the dismay of the authoritarian wings of all three branches of government.

But no comment was more dissonant than that of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, who, in the dissenting opinion, commented on national security:

Scalia called the judiciary "the branch that knows least about . . . national security concerns" and penned the darkest line of the court's 126 pages of back-and-forth: "It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed." [emphasis mine]

So a member of the governmental branch that knows the least about national security has based his dissenting opinion on… wait for it… yes: National Security.

How ‘bout this, Mr. Scalia, you keep to the Constitution and don’t busy your tired little brain with things you admittedly know nothing about. But then again, if you do not even understand irony, then how can you comprehend the intricacies of that "goddamned piece of paper", the Constitution?

Almost certainly, indeed!

Bobby Jindal and the Devil

Touted as the next Ronald Reagan and possible McCain running mate, the Republican governor of Louisiana apparently has had some interactions with Lucifer… yes, that one, Scratch, Satan, Incubus. That guy.

I’m all for freedom of religion and all, but the larger question is who should be running our federal government. There may be no public test for office provided by the Constitution, but there certainly is a private test, and frankly, Gov. Jindal has failed mine.

On a recent interview, he also affirmed his belief that the universe was designed by a higher power and, although he majored in biology, stated that he recognized that science could not answer all questions; therefore, faith in Intelligent Design may be warranted.

The thing I do not understand, and I mean this sincerely, is how someone educated in science or philosophy, someone who can see the advances that have been made, the experiential advances that are well-known over the ages, can be so quick to abandon scientific method when the least amount of uncertainty arises. Where is the confidence that a rational explanation is simply unknown or unknowable to us at this time?

Sure, there is plenty we do not know about phenomena in our experience, but we also have a long history of finding rational scientific explanations for previously considered supernatural phenomena. So why the rush to put faith in sky wizards, magic and demons? I just don’t get it.

What other weird ideas does Jindal have? I’m confident that Mr. McCain will pass on Bobby Jindal as Vice-Presidential candidate, but my questions are still unanswered as to where these guys come from and why are they running our government.

Conservative tax policy

From Steven Landsburg at the WSJ:

Like philanthropy, saving is an act of self-denial that enriches your neighbors (by leaving more goods available for them to consume). But unlike philanthropy, saving is punished by the tax system (via the taxes on interest, dividends, capital gains and inheritance). That's nuts. When you tax saving, you encourage people – wealthy people in particular – to spend more and grab a larger share of the consumption pie. "More consumption by the rich" should not be among the primary objectives of the tax code.

The alternative is to tax consumption....you can easily implement a consumption tax with a Form 1040 that says: "How much did you earn this year? How much did you save? Now pay tax on the difference." And you can make that tax as progressive as you like.

Einstein, by Walter Isaacson

I've read several different accounts of Albert Einstein's life, but none is more comprehensive and understandable than the current one by Walter Isaacson. Superbly written and inclusive of recently discovered correspondence from Europe, Einstein recounts the many facets of the life of the redoubtable scientist, profound thinker, passionate activist and singular personality.

Many of the anecdotes about Einstein's alleged learning disabilities are addressed as well as the itinerant status of stateless vagabond that he assumed in his early adult life. The most enjoyable surprise, however, is Isaacson's ability to explain theoretical physics which is accessible to the non-scientist.

Isaacson spends whole chapters discussing the photoelectric effect, bending light rays, gravitation and molecular physics which allows one to come away with a solid understanding of the language and concepts of some of the greatest thinking of humankind.

In addition to the heralded scientific discoveries, the biography takes us through the cultural and social events of the twentieth century, the ravages of Nazism, the breathtaking consequences of the atomic age and the political upheaval of the cold war. Unlike other celebrities of the age, Professor Einstein was not afraid to express his opinions on such incandescent topics as human rights, nationalism and religious faith, and to use his celebrity to promote beneficence when possible.

The paradoxes and twists of fate in Einstein's life add layers to the interest generated by this most interesting individual. While abandoning his own sons, he became the loving and devoted father to his two step-daughters. After a lifetime espousing pacifism, he became one of the creators of the most destructive weapons known to man. After decrying nationalism as the "measles of mankind", he later became an outspoken proponent of the creation of the nation of Israel.

To understand the life and times of Albert Einstein is no less than than to understand the history of the twentieth century .

Your tax dollars hard at work

... bashing Democratic nominee Barack Obama. Doesn't the Army have better things to do with its funding than to run a blog with flagrantly partisan postings? If not, then please send my portion of the few trillion dollars spent the last several years back.

McCain: "I don't use a computer..."

Didn't we just have 8 years of a chief executive who was purposely out of touch with reality? Can we survive another four?

Watch the video

Paul Newman...

is rumored to be sick, so it's time for a little Plastic Jesus (scene from Cool Hand Luke.)

Wizard of Oz gets his offense, one way or another

June 1: Ozzie has tirade blasting lack of offensive production by his first place White Sox

June 2: Jay Mariotti calls (yet again) for Ozzie's firing

June 3: White Sox win 9-5

June 4: White Sox win 6-4

June 5: White Sox win 6-2

June 6: White Sox win 10-6

June 7: White Sox win 11-2

June 8: White Sox win 12-2

I guess that's why managers manage and sportswriters, well... I don't really know what sportswriters do.

I get email...

Recently one of my self-described right-wing friends, I'll call him Ralph, sent me this email. I'll publish this along with the responses that followed.

Ralph's initial email:

Subject: "Email of the Year"

This is pretty good. Forgive a couple words in there though.... Ralph

---

WOULDN'T IT BE GREAT TO TURN ON THE TV AND HEAR ANY U.S. PRESIDENT, DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN GIVE THE FOLLOWING SPEECH?
"My Fellow Americans: As you all know, the defeat of the Iraq regime has been completed.

Since congress does not want to spend any more money on this war, our mission in Iraq is complete.

This morning I gave the order for a complete removal of all American forces from Iraq This action will be complete within 30 days. It is now time to begin the reckoning.

Before me, I have two lists. One list contains the names of countries which have stood by our side during the Iraq conflict. This list is short . The United Kingdom , Spain , Bulgaria , Australia , and Poland are some of the countries listed there.

The other list contains every one not on the first list. Most of the world's nations are on that list. My press secretary will be distributing copies of both lists later this evening.

Let me start by saying that effective immediately, foreign aid to those nations on List 2 ceases immediately and indefinitely. The money saved during the first year alone will pretty much pay for the costs of the Iraqi war. THEN EVERY YEAR THERE AFTER IT' ll GO TO OUR SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM SO IT WONT GO BROKE IN 20 YEARS.

The American people are no longer going to pour money into third world Hell holes and watch those government leaders grow fat on corruption.

Need help with a famine ? Wrestling with an epidemic? Call France .

In the future, together with Congress, I will work to redirect this money toward solving the vexing social problems we still have at home . On that note, a word to terrorist organizations. Screw with us and we will hunt you down and eliminate you and all your friends from the face of the earth.

Thirsting for a gutsy country to terrorize? Try France or maybe China

I am ordering the immediate severing of diplomatic relations with France , Germany , and Russia . Thanks for all your help, comrades. We are retiring from NATO as well. Bonne chance, mezamies.

I have instructed the Mayor of New York City to begin towing the many UN diplomatic vehicles located in Manhattan with more than two unpaid parking tickets to sites where those vehicles will be stripped, shredded and crushed. I don't care about whatever treaty pertains to this. You creeps have tens of thousands of unpaid tickets. Pay those tickets tomorrow or watch your precious Benzes, Beamers and limos be turned over to some of the finest chop shops in the world. I love New York

A special note to our neighbors. Canada is on List 2. Since we are likely to be seeing a lot more of each other, you folks might want to try not pissing us off for a change.

Mexico is also on List 2 its president and his entire c orrupt government really need an attitude adjustment. I will have a couple extra thousand tanks and infantry divisions sitting around. Guess where I am going to put 'em? Yep, border security.

Oh, On another note; In the past 100 yrs, the US government has LOANED billions of dollars to most of the countries on list 2 in time of crisis. Have any of them ever considered paying us back???? NOOOOOOO! Instead we are on their sh_t list... Go figure!

Oh, by the way, the United States is abrogating the NAFTA treaty - starting now.

We are tired of the one-way highway. Immediately, we'll be drilling for oil in Alaska- which will take care of this country's oil needs for decades to come. If you're an environmentalist who opposes this decision, I refer you to List 2 above: pick a country and move there

It is time for America to focus on its own welfare and its own citizens. Some will accuse us of isolationism. I answer them by saying, 'darn tootin.'

Nearly a century of trying to help folks live a decent life around the world has only earned us the undying enmity of just about everyone on the planet. It is time to eliminate hunger in America It is time to eliminate homelessness in America . To the nations on List 1, a final thought. Thank you guys. We owe you and we won't forget.

To the nations on List 2, a final thought: You might want to learn to speak Arabic.

God bless America . Thank you and good night."

If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you are reading it in English, thank a soldier.

(Please forward this to at least ten friends and see what happens! Let's get this to every USA computer!)

(Please forward this to at least ten friends and see what happens! Let's get this to every USA computer!)

My first response:

Ralph,

Do I detect a little anger here? According to your guy Bush we are just on the verge of winning this thing in Iraq, so why do you want to leave now? Don't tell me you think it was a bad idea.

Tony

Ralph's response:

Tony,
I'm not angry at all! And this was the quote: "Since congress does not want to spend
any more money on this war, our mission in Iraq is complete."

As you know, the congress is controlled and led by the democrats. The e-mail never said that we should pull out
and I don't think we should at this point. The purpose of the e-mail is to show (the reckoning) or what we should happen once we do. [sic]

God Bless America,
Ralph

My second response:

Ralph,

I'm heartened to hear that you are not angry, because anger saps the soul of its vitality, especially when that anger is misdirected away from the party responsible. I'm worried about you, buddy. I guess I had mistaken all the anger and venom depicted in the "The "Email of the Year"-- since you took the immense trouble of forwarding it-- as sentiments that you may harbor. Threats to rescind treaties, tow diplomats' cars, attack Canada, or giving Mexico an "attitude adjusment"... pardon me, but this sounds a bit angry. We'll cut off "foreign aid" (Never mind, of course, that the US ranks nearly dead last among developed nations in the provision of foreign aid.) Talk of being "pissed off" or making up "sh_t lists" that include entire nations of allies, in my interpretation, smacks of anger. So if you're not angry, then what emotion should I have detected?

(Maybe I should just make a habit of deleting inane emails when they come my way, but one of my character flaws is that I have a hard time accepting such unmitigated garbage without a comment. That's my cross to bear.)

In reference to this "Email of the Year", since when has Congress withheld financing or support of Mr. Bush's ill-conceived incursion into Iraq? The Iraq Force Resolution of 2002 was signed (to my dismay and likely that of Russell Kirk, if he were alive) by half the Democrats in Congress. Every single one of Bush's defense budgets has been passed, including war supplementals approaching half a trillion dollars. Never before in my memory has a president been given such wide latitude in the conduct of any project, let alone an unjustified, unsanctioned, undeclared and unpopular war. Is the point of the "Email of the Year" that Mr. Bush has NOT been given enough money, troops and time to win in Iraq? Seriously? By your calculation, how much more of our borrowed tax revenue does Mr. Bush need? To your liking, how many more of our kids need to be thrown into the grinder to ensure the purple-fingered freedom of a bunch of religious fanatics half a world away?

The Bush administration had predicted in 2003 the war would take no longer than 6 months and less than $50 billion, so the fact that we are still mired in this debacle 5 years later and still spending $2 billion per week shows Congressional acquiescence bordering on insanity.

I realize you didn't write the "Email of the Year", but the mere act of blindly sending emails with snarky humor or self-righteous inuendo about a murderous illegal war is beyond the pale. (Forwarding risible emails has become de rigueur replacement for political debate in out post-modern internet age.) In my name-- in our names-- this nation under the leadership of its Commander-in-Chief has invaded another country under mistaken (or fraudulent) pretenses, killed hundreds of thousands of civilians, forced millions of refugees, destabilized the world's oil supply, spent billions of borrowed treasury revenue, and committed thousands of our own kids to death, debt, dismemberment and disability... and for what?

(By the way, where is Osama bin Laden? Or do you have another snarky email in your inbox implying that his current freedom is the Democrats' fault, too?)

I have little patience with such crap. If you have a point to make, make it; but try to make it without all the snide little snipets of non-humor and veiled angry threats. Ralph, the "Email of the Year" would have been more palatable if it HAD been sent by someone who was truly angry, who truly felt the emotion that is characterized in the email. Instead you have admittedly sent the email in order to portray (to idiots like me, I suppose) what "should happen" if we "pull out." This protrayal, however, is chock full of all the misguided testosterone-laden vitriol that got us into the Iraqi quagmire in the first place. If you are not really angry, then why send such an angry depiction of what "should" happen? (As if you have any judgment of "shoulds" or "shouldnt's" anyway.)

I apologize for the lack of humor in my response, which hardly connotes "bitterness" as one person on this list has characterized me (I always enjoy being labeled by people who do not know me); instead of being bitter, my comment is more a reflection of disgust. Disgust at the glibness of Bush supporters-- the twelve or so who are left-- at the mayhem that has been produced and the complete lack of a sense of responsibility for this mayhem.

My view is that if you have supported Bush all these years, the least you can do is keep a low profile. The arrogance of deflecting responsibility from anyone but the current president and his administration is frankly disgusting. He was wrong then, he is wrong now, and if you are not angered by the poor conduct of your Commander-in-Chief at a time of war... well, upon further reflection maybe anger is the healthier emotion, Ralph.

Tony

By the way, if God had truly blessed America he would have dropped a few more chads in Florida in 2000 and maybe we wouldn't be in this mess. My guess is that God gave up on us a while back.

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Gasoline demand drops... Duh!

Okay, I'm going to talk my book for a few paragraphs. The story this morning is that US consumers have stopped driving and gasoline sales have declined. When people stop driving, they also stop spending money on vacations, restaurants and discretionary spending in general. The economy, which is 70% consumer driven, cannot sustain high priced oil and the cracks are appearing.

The next part of the narrative will be the obvious recession that we have entered this quarter. The move in oil has not been exactly parabolic, but the oil contract is well above it 200-day moving average and, on a technical basis, is overbought.

Sure, demand in China and other growing economies will continue to increase, but the acceleration will most assuredly drop. Also, China currently subsidizes the cost per gallon of gas to less than $3 per gallon which may end very soon.

I've mentioned DUG before and will mention it again. Can oil get to $150 per barrel? Perhaps, but the technicals and fundamentals point to $120 before $150.

Shorting oil is also a play on a stronger dollar, and with the dollar making new monthly low against the Euro, again the contrarian play is go short oil in anticipation of the stronger dollar.

Note that I'm not one of those nutjobs that thinks the run up in oil is "all due to speculators." Demand driven prices have brought oil up to $130 per barrel, but the demand projections have not fully factored in a prolonged recession in the US which would certainly affect developing econonmies as well.

Don't sell that Gold just yet

Thomas P.M. Barnett, author of the Pentagon's New Map and other internationalist non-fiction, gives good insight on his blog about current events. A recent post commented on President Bush's trip to the Israeli Knesset and upon reading and re-reading Bush's words, it occurs to me that Barnett may have a striking point.

Barnett says that "Bush calling Iran the equivalent of Nazi Germany is his way of signaling the White House's pre-approval for any Israeli military strikes on his watch." Now that makes total sense.

The exact words by Bush from that speech are:

"Some seem to believe we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: 'Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler all of this might have been avoided.' We have an obligation to call this what it is -- the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history."

Aside from violating Godwin's Principle, Bush has clearly targeted Iran, yes Iran with a defense budget of less than 1% of the US', as the latest bogeyman worthy of annihilation. Never mind that analogies to Nazi Germany are completely absurd. When the bombs launch, so will gold, US Treasuries and oil futures.

So, you think you know what's going on?

TED talk by the CEO of Public Radio International about the poor international news coverage by US news outlets.

Waning Countertrend Rally

A while back we looked at charts of the market to see the countertrend rally in an overall down market. At that time the short positions were closed and careful longs positions were taken in SPY and financials.



In April we took half profits and let the rest ride for another leg up in the countertrend rally. Well, it may be time to reverse course on this market and look for some short positions again. The rally is a bit long in the tooth for a bear market phenomenon.

If the SPY can hold above $138.20, then a sharp decline may be averted, but if this drops further then watch out below with the next support level at $134. Risk management would dictate extreme caution in this environment and the poor technicals.

The market, while not as overbought as in October, has had a heady run with two-thirds of NYSE stocks trading above their 50-day moving average as shown in the following chart. This signifies a short term overbought condition.



The fed minutes were released today under much more hype than usual and the market sold off. I would look for a some limited strength tomorrow to sell into.

Another theme is the extremely overbought condition in oil over the short term, barrel prices having gone up over 7% this past week. A reasonable trade would be to buy DUG, the ultrashort oil and gas ETF, and look for a quick 5% on the retracement.

Canadian Solar: So Far... ALL Good!

Back in February we talked about alternative energy, and specifically Canadian Solar (CSIQ) as the cheapest player in a burgeoning field of photovoltaic solar energy equipment. At that time CSIQ was under $19 and Friday it closed above $32, up over 70%.

My bias in situations like this is to take money off the table as I did with Mosaic (MOS) last year, having bought it at $20 and selling at $40, thus missing the run up over $100. So, with CSIQ I'm letting this sucker ride, although I'd put a stop-loss somewhere around $27.

Energy generation will be an issue for the remainder of the decade and beyond. Looking at the 1970's analogy, we are still only at about 1975 and the a dollar rally should not hurt CSIQ very much-- in fact they may have a better US market for sales with a stronger greenback . Even in the teeth of this current recession, we are still seeing a huge need for non-carbon energy generation and this should increase with the coming panic over global warming As such, CSIQ and Cameco Corporation (CCJ) should continue to be strong holdings.