Smoke-free dining in Kalamazoo

Here is a list of restaurants in Kalamazoo that prohibit smoking for patrons (copied below).  This is an excellent resource for those of us who do not like to dine in an atmosphere polluted with cigarette smoke.  On quick perusal I notice that this list is incomplete;  in addition to the ones below, O'Duffy's on Vine Street has always been smoke-free.  [As an aside, I have always been opposed to laws limiting business owners rights to operate establishments that allow smoking-- or any other activity between adults for that matter.]

Angelo's Italian Eatery	5401 Portage Road , Portage
Asiago's Bakery & Deli	6997 W Q Avenue , Texas Corners
B'Wiched Deli	5051 W. Main St, Kalamazoo
Barnes & Noble Café	6134 South Westnedge Avenue , Portage
Beaner's Coffee	5913 Gull Road , Comstock Twp
Bella Creamery	10098 Shaver Road , Portage
Big Apple Bagels	3205 S Westnedge Ave, Portage
Big Apple Bagels	3838 W Centre Street , Portage
Big Apple Bagels	4408 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Big Joe's Pizza & Deli	1524 Gull Road , Kalamazoo
Bravo!	5402 Portage Road , Portage
Burger King	5798 Gull Road , Comstock Twp
Charlie Foster's	Water Street, Kalamazoo
Cheesesteak Grill, Inc.	233 W Centre Avenue , Portage
Cold Stone Creamery	4540 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Colonial Kitchen	330 N Drake, Kalamazoo
Cool Beans	6541 Stadium Drive , Oshtemo
Cornerview Café	643 N Riverview Drive , Parchment
Cosmo's Cucina and O'Duffy's Pub	804 W Vine Street , Kalamazoo
Cottage Inn Pizza	5038 W KL Ave , Kalamazoo
Crow's Nest	816 South Westnedge Avenue , Kalamazoo
Culver's of Portage	7262 S Westnedge Avenue , Portage
Dogs With Style	410 S Burdick Street , Kalamazoo
Domino's Pizza	2001 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Domino's Pizza	1788 W Milham , Portage
Duda's Deli & Pizzeria	113 W. Michigan Avenue , Kalamazoo
Ecumenical Center	702 N Burdick Street , Kalamazoo
Erbelli's Pizza & Italian Cusine	8342 Portage Road , Portage
Erbelli's Pizza & Italian Cusine	6214 Stadium Drive, Kalamazoo
Evergreen Grille -Yarrow Inc.	10449 N 48th Street , Hickory Corners
Franco's Substation-Pizzeria	8016 South Westnedge , Portage
Full City Café	7878 Oakland Drive , Portage
Full City Café	2026 Parkview Drive , Kalamazoo
G & L Restaurant	2628 W. Michigan Ave, Kalamazoo
Good to Go Cafe	120 E Prairie St. Vicksburg
Hope Woods Dining	5749 Stadium Drive , Oshtemo
Hunan Gardens	5059 W. Main, Kalamazoo
Icehouse Bar & Grille	3600 Vanrick Drive , Kalamazoo
Kellogg Biological Station	3700 E Gull Lake Drive , Hickory Corners
Little Caesar's Pizza	3814 West Centre Street , Portage
Little Caesar's Pizza	911 East Cork Lane , Kalamazoo
Little Caesar's Pizza	5460 East Gull Road , Comstock Twp
Little Caesar's Pizza	3500 East Main Street , Kalamazoo
Little Caesar's Pizza	4250 West Main Street , Kalamazoo
Little Caesar's Pizza	507 North Park Street , Kalamazoo
Little Caesar's Pizza	930 Portage Street , Kalamazoo
Little Caesar's Pizza	13218 North US 131 , Schoolcraft
Little Caesar's Pizza	6011 South Westnedge Avenue , Portage
Lunchtime Café	5067 Gull Road , Comstock Twp
Mancino's Pizza & Grindres	10100 Shaver Road , Portage
Nina's Café	1710 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Nisker's	6384 South Westnedge Avenue , Portage
Oakwood Bistro	3003 Oakland Drive , Kalamazoo
Old Burdick's, Radisson Plaza Hotel	100 W. Michigan Ave, Kalamazoo
Old Burdick's West	2747 S 11th St., Osthemo
Olga's Kitchen	6650 South Westnedge Avenue, Portage
Panda Express	2706 W. Michigan Ave, Kalamazoo
Panera Bread	5119 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Panera Bread	5970 S Westnedge Ave , Portage
Pasta Pasta	762 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Piper's	45 W Michigan Ave , Galesburg
Pizza Hut	2042 W Centre Ave , Portage
Pizza Hut	5462 Gull Road , Comstock Twp
Pizza Hut	6050 Gull Road , Comstock Twp
Pizza Hut	1908 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Pizza Hut	6840 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Pizza Hut	6300 S Westnedge Ave , Portage
Pizza Hut	4438 S Westnedge Ave , Kalamazoo
Pizza Maters	2937 Howard, Kalamazoo
Plumcrazzy Ice Cream Parlor	3710 S Westnedge Ave., Kalamazoo
Portage Senior Center	320 Library Lane , Portage
Pretty Lake Vacation Camp	9123 West Q Avenue , Texas Twp
Qdoba Mexican Grill	5901 Gull Road , Comstock Twp
Qdoba Mexican Grill	4403 West Main Street , Kalamazoo
Qdoba Mexican Grill	6800 South Westnedge Avenue , Portage
Rasa Ria	1908 W Main Street , Kalamazoo
Red Robin	5710 S Westnedge Ave , Portage
Richland Sajos Pizza	9800 M-89 , Richland
Rykse's Restaurant	5924 W Stadium Drive , Oshtemo
Saffron Indian Cuisine	1710 W Main, Suite D street, Kalamazoo
Samuel Mancino's Italian Eatery	5363 S Westnedge Ave, Portage
Schnauzer's Banquet Hall	4261 West U Avenue, Schoolcraft
Scooters Malt Shoppe & Travelling Treats	8399 S 36th Street, Climax
Shawarma King	2925 S Westnedge Ave, Kalamazoo
Sol World Cafe, Radisson Plaza Hotel	100 W. Michigan Ave, Kalamazoo
Spicy Pickle	5363 W Main St, Kalamazoo
Spicy Pickle	3782 W Centre, Portage
Sports Forum	803 W Mosel, Kalamazoo
Squakers	1106 Mills St., Kalamazoo
Stadium Big Boy	4700 Stadium Drive , Kalamazoo
Steak 'n Shake	5371 West Main St, Kalamazoo
Steak 'n Shake	5342 South Westnedge Ave, Portage
Subway	1256 East Centre Street , Portage
Subway	123 East Michigan Avenue , Kalamazoo
Subway	1903 W Michigan Ave , Kalamazoo
Subway Walmart	8250 Shaver Road , Portage
SummerThyme Café	3928 Portage Street , Kalamazoo
Sweetwater's Donut Mill	2138 Sprinkle Road , Kalamazoo
Sweetwater's Donut Mill	3333 Stadium Drive , Kalamazoo
Taco Bob's	6890 Stadium, Kalamazoo
Taco Bob's	248 South St., Kalamazoo
Texas Hunan Gardens	5157 West Q Avenue , Texas Corners
The Birches Banquet Center	3082 South 9th Street , Oshtemo
The Copy Cup	312 W Michigan , Kalamazoo
The Fieldstone Grill	3970 W Centre Ave , Portage
The Pita Pit	2913 S Howard Street , Kalamazoo
The Soup Kettle	150 S Kalamazoo Mall , Kalamazoo
Treat Street	3023 Oakland Drive , Kalamazoo
Uncle Ernie's	4005 Portage Street , Kalamazoo
Uncle Mike's Pizza	5000 Sprinkle, Portage
The Village Coffee Bar	7000 Stadium Drive, Kalamazoo
Wally's Subs	6477 W Stadium Drive , Oshtemo
Washington Square Senior Co-op	710 Collins Street , Kalamazoo
Websters, Radisson Plaza Hotel	100 W. Michigan Ave, Kalamazoo
Wedel's Garden Center/Garden Party Café	5020 Texas Drive , Texas Twp
Wings Etc	7337 E Westnedge Ave, Portage
Zazios, Radisson Plaza Hotel	100 W. Michigan Ave, Kalamazoo

Random Thoughts on the Economy and Obama

1.  Obama's chances of having the Republicans sign on to his first initiative were zero.  He was naive to think otherwise.

2. Revisionist history that the New Deal made the Depression worse are laughable and quite frankly marginalize people like Mitch McConnell (if he had any credibility anyway.)  Look at industrial production from1929 to 1932 and then 1932 to 1937 if you have doubts.

3. Home prices nationwide have declined 20%, but that is counted from inflated prices from 2005 to 2006.  Over the past ten years, however, home prices have still increased.

4. Auto purchases are down from 17 million per year to 14 million.  Do we really need that many new cars which will eventually end up in landfills built every year?  With new technology and better cars, they should last longer. 

5. Obama's stimulus plan is a spending bill.  That's what stimulus is.  Tax cuts are not as useful for stimulus.  Too bad we didn't understand this in 2001 (see #12 below).

6.  Infrastructure needs to be improved in this country... this will improve our efficiency for the next two generations.  That's what the WPA, TVA, rural electrification, interstate highways, etc did in the 1930's to 1950's.

7.  We have been misallocating our resources for the last generation with the expansion of the financial indutry at the expense of nearly all others (except, of course, the military and oil.)  Drug research, access to medical care, education have all suffered.

8.  What's the big whoop if the financial industry contracts by 20-25%?  The investment banks are too big anyway and the home loan industry should be run like a utility: unleveraged, mega-regulated and uniform.

9.  The unemployed are not going to be re-employed at jobs that are at all similar to the ones they lost.  If you made windows or Chryslers before, or worked as an analyst for an i-bank... forget about it... take this oppotunity to learn a useful skill.  Community colleges, baby.

10. I see a new era where conservation comes back into style and conspicuous consumption becomes uncool.  Call it "Depression chic."  Nothing wrong with that, it's good old fashioned frugality and there is something honorable and patriotic to living within your means.

11. If your have any debt, pay it off before the interest rates go up.  

12. GDP growth the last ten years has been illusory and can be accounted for solely from the massive leverage in the financial indusrty.  Real growth was zero or even negative.

Can the Yankess Cancel A-Roid's Contract?

I'm no lawyer but I know that if I were paying him, I'd want my money back.

BTW, Michael Phelps is not even in the same league.  As far as anyone knows, Phelps never cheated by using performance enhancing drugs.  In my opinion, marijuana is in the same class as beer... and nobody's going after Mickey Mantle's or Babe Ruth's  Hall of Fame status.

Happy 200th Birthday, Mr. Darwin

Two centuries ago, arguably the greatest naturalist was born in England.  What Democritus did for philosophy, Copernicus for Astronomy and Isaac Newton for Physics, Charles Darwin achieved in the filed of Biology.  His unifying theory of natural selection based on spontaneous mutation outlined  in the 1859 classic On the Origin of Species has profoundly affected the way we think about the relationships between organisms and environment.

National Geographic has an excellent story and TV show on Darwin's adventures and work. 

NPR discusses the cultural controversies surrounding his theory.

The stimulus needs to stimulate

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has a chart that gives the the relative value of various spending/tax cut policies to GDP growth.  The way I read this is that spending is stimulus, tax cuts are not.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but if this bill is truly intended to stimulate the economy, then it should be primarily a spending bill.  In 2001, we went through this same discussion when Bush and the Republicans passed a tax cut bill in the teeth of a recession, and it had little lasting effect as we are learning now since almost the entire GDP growth has been illusory.

Now for some reason we are having the same tired old discussion.  No doubt I would like my taxes cut as much as the next guy, but the fact is that the CBO-- and almost all serious economists-- states it would have little effect on GDP.  If McCain and Lindsay Graham are not going to try to understand economics then the Democrats should jettison their attempts for a bipartisan compromise and pass the correct bill on straight party lines.  The Republicans have already marginalized themselves with failed policies.

On a related note, Charles Krauthammer lets us know how he really feels with the silliest vitriolic column I've read in quite a while.  While there is valid criticism of the current stimulus bill, Krauthammer seems to have had this thing written months ago and decided to file it this week.  If this type of delusion is emblematic of the way the next 4 years is going to play out, at least we can enjoy the comedy show.   

These same Republicans had almost nothing to say about the massive expenditures in Iraq which was full of waste for an ill-advised war, and BTW, had no multiplier for the US GDP.  

They just won't go away...

Item #1: Former Bush Chief-of-Staff Andy Card's tender sartorial sensibilities have been insulted by President Obama taking his jacket off to get some work done.

Item #2: Dick Cheney is trying to scare the shit out of everyone (again).  

To paraphrase Mr. Cheney when he was showing such great respect for the US Senate:  "Go F*#k yourselves."

Does Obama have the balls to fix this country?

Greenwald has a great take-down of Tom Daschle and his beauty queen trophy wife who, it turns out, are the consummate pigs at the trough of corporate money and Washington largesse.  Whore's whores indeed and good riddance to his appointment to Obama's cabinet.  Read it.

President Obama was interviewed by on CBS News and intimated that he realizes he has made mistakes in his first couple weeks and he is taking measures to remedy the shaky start and has the recognition of his missteps and is putting forth the effort... blah, blah, blah...

Here's the deal:  This country is fucked up.  Obama was elected as an agent of change, but it is becoming clear that what we need is an agent of revolution.  The corporate rapists have taken what they could and have left the sarcophagus behind for us to dispose of.   So far Obama has been conciliatory to the Republican dunderheads on his stimulus bill, selected a right-wing bigot for his inauguration invocation, appointed a GOP free-trader to Commerce, put a tax-evader in charge of Treasury and has placed lobbyists to important posts throughout his administration.

Is it worse than the previous administration?  No, not by a long shot.  By this time eight years ago, Bush already had 4 known war criminals in his cabinet, but I digress.

What we need now is a leader who will disavow the failed policies of the guilded elite who have ruined our banking system, promoted wars without just cause and bought our government with blood money.  If Obama had desired to impress me with his quick start, he has failed.  Here are my recommendations:

1.  Nationalize the failed banks... yesterday.  Their stock goes to zero, only senior debt is recognized and the executives give back their bonuses or go to jail.  Banks should operate like utilities anyway.  Why should these idiots make millions to put our capital (now government funds) at risk when they obviously cannot do it without losing the capital?

2. Stimulate the economy by building infrastructure.  The dumbshit business interests and public cannot be trusted to do the right thing with the finances.  We need roads, telecom and energy-saving infrastructure, not more Chryslers on our highways and plasma TV's in our living rooms.  Great quote: "It would be irresponsible to chose another policy, which would increase our country's indebtedness without having more infrastructure and increased competitiveness in the end."  Why Obama buckled to GOP pressure on his infrastructure expenditures is beyond me.

3. Kick out all the bums who created this economic mess.  I understand that Geithner may have "experience", but realize that he was in charge when all this shit hit the fan and his office   a) didn't see it coming in the first place and    b) screwed up the TARP after the fact.  The only reason Larry Summers... a smarter, better qualified candidate... isn't Treasury Secretary is because he insulted the tender egoes of feminists... which is a terrible basis on which to pick a general in a war.

The Democrats are at their worst when they emulate their Republican counterparts, and so far that seems to be the manner of governance.  Mr. Obama, don't blink now-- let's take this mutha down.  Band-aids don't cure cancer.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Charts for Wednesday:

BEAV is the good one.

BSX is bad only because its name isn't as good as BEAV, otherwise this one looks great.

FLIR is ugly.  It missed out on a big defense contract last month and has hit the skids with no support in sight.

How not to run a country

Vanity Fair has an exhaustive and well-done redux of the Bush administration in all its ineptitude.  In case you have been asleep the past eight years and need a primer, or if you just want a refresher on the beginning chapter of  western civilization's self-destruction, read on.  Here's an excerpt (the entire piece is lenghty, but quite worth it):

January 23, 2004 David Kay, the chief U.S. weapons inspector, resigns his position, affirming his belief that no W.M.D. stockpiles will be found in Iraq; the following week he discusses his conclusions at the White House. Nine months later his successor, Charles Duelfer, will conclude officially that Iraq not only did not possess W.M.D. but did not have an active program in place to develop them. The structural supports of Powell’s U.N. presentation begin to crumble.

Lawrence Wilkerson, top aide and later chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell: Well, [Powell] got a telephone call each time a pillar fell. It was either John [McLaughlin, deputy C.I.A. director], calling Rich [Armitage], and Rich telling him, or it was George [Tenet] or John calling the secretary. And I remember this vividly because he would walk through my door, and his face would grow more morose each time, and he’d say, Another pillar just fell. I said, Which one this time? And, of course, the last one was the mobile biological labs.

Finally, when that call came, the secretary came through the door and said, The last pillar has just collapsed. The mobile biological labs don’t exist. Turned around and went back into his office.

David Kay, chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq: As we turned to the trailers, it was probably—I guess the single biggest shock I had during the entire inspection process, because I’d been powerfully moved by Powell’s statement to the Council. Well, when we started tearing it apart, we discovered it was not based on several sources. It was based on one source, and it was an individual [code-named Curveball] held by German intelligence. They had denied the U.S. the right to directly interview him. And they only passed summaries—and really not very good ones—of their interrogations with him. The Germans had refused to pass us his name even.

As you delved into his character and his claims, none of them bore any truth. The case just fell apart.

Joschka Fischer, German foreign minister and vice-chancellor: I was astonished that the Americans used Curveball, really astonished. This was our stuff. But they presented it not in the way we knew it. They presented it as a fact, and not as the way an intelligence assessment is—could be, but could also be a big lie. We don’t know.

April 13, 2004 At a press conference Bush is asked by John Dickerson ofTime to name the biggest mistake he has made since 9/11. Bush is unable to come up with an answer. He replies, “I wish you would have given me this written question ahead of time, so I could plan for it.”

Friday Morning Rant

TARP: 

Wall Street paid out $18 billion in bonuses to executives and valued employees last year, with most of that coming after the companies recieved TARP funds.  I don't know too many industries, but OB/Gyns in the USA recieved in the ball park of $7.5 billion in compensation in 2008-- that's all Ob/Gyns put together, total compensation and not just "bonuses", and Medicare and Medicaid have decreased reimbursement for services in each of the last five years.  Outrageous.

The TARP was initially set up to purchase "troubled assets" and we remember that it morphed into this idea by Paulson and Bush to inject funds directly into banks by buying preferred stock; those funds primarily went to pay out bonuses to follks who make too much money anyway.  Although I try to be positive about the motivations of the govt and their buddies on Wall Street, this smacks of cynicism.

Obama:

WTF was the point of Obama going to the Republicans and asking for their support and giving in to their demands about the stimulus package?  Not only did they all vote against it-- every single Republican representive-- but then their leadership got in front of the cameras and gloated that they voted against it and they're proud.  Assholes.  The only "hope" I have for Obama is that he grows a pair some time soon.

I would have liked to see our president say, "Fuck you.  Not only only can you all go to hell, but I propose that we increase the budget outlay for contraception for poor people and double the sod on the Washington mall."  I can't help but think that's what Hillary would have done.

I hold the Republicans responsibile for the need for this stimulus bill due to their lack of regulation of the financial markets... and don't even give me that bullshit castigation of Fannie and Freddie.  Most mortgages in this country are not originated by Fannie and Freddie.  The executive branch decided to pull all the regulation of the markets, full stop.

My New Site

OK, the new year has brought some changes and one is the NEW SITE called Trader's Log devoted to stock and ETF trading, finance and economics.  This should clean up the KaPo which will continue as my repository of opinion on culture, politics and sports.

Have a look around, but remember it's a work in progress so patience is a prerequisite.  And keep tuning into the KaPo for all my quirky opinions on the real world. 

Banks-- don't bank on 'em for the long haul

XLF on the ten-minute graph (above) we see that the price action is showing an ascending triangle and the RSI gives it an oversold reading.  Resistance and support are marked on the BMP image.

WFC looks very similar to XLF and may be good for a trade here out of the oversold condition, but I would put a tight stop on this one.  The risk reward does not look that good to me for anything but a day trade.

WFC, like XLF, in the daily graph (below) is showing declining 50 and 200-dMA's and the 50 has crossed below the 200-dMA which is a negative sign.  Regionals look even worse, which is evidence by the thrashing that HCBK took despite pretty good numbers.  I prefer not to fight the tape even though I realize that a big bump up can occur at any time.

Most sectors are showing the 50-200 dMA "death cross", with the notable exception of biotechs.  GERN is a representive stock here.  Also,  STEM could be considered on any pullbacks. 

Another sector worth a gander is gold miners.  It's a little quirky, but the technicals are showing great price movement.  I stay away from individual gold mining stocks because of the vagaries of valuation.  Also, GLD and SLV look relatively strong on the long side.

Sectors that will lead the recovery: UPDATED

First of all, I have no idea when the recovery will take place, but if the recovery were to occur with a bounce off the current low, the sectors that would lead are likely to be healthcare and staples.

According to Justin Mamis' Nature of Risk, the sectors that lead the recovery out of a bear market are those that a) underperformed relative to the market during the last bull cycle, and 2) outperformed relative to the market with the current bear cycle.  

Those sectors are healthcare and consumer staples which underperformed during the bull market from 2003 to 2008, with energy obviously far outpacing all other sectors.  

The second part of the Mamis thesis is that those sectors that have been relatively spared from the bear market will be the first to recover.  Again, those sectors that outperformed in the bear market are healthcare and staples as shown in the last two graphics below, with financials obviously leading the way downward.

Is this really The Bottom?

Yesterday, at the advice of Eric and direction of Teresa Lo,  I have re-read the seminal tome  Nature of Risk by Justin Mamis and his discussion about recognizing market bottoms by looking at the number of new lows.  Mamis' thesis is that the market sends messages before any trader or investor can notice, and we only know why the market recovered after the fact.

His graph depicts the "typical bottom" with the psychological stages that market participants experience.

Now let's look at today's market:

I have drawn in the representative stages as if we have already hit the bottom and are now poised for a recovery.  Of course, my opinion is next to worthless but I have great trepidation about calling the recent blip downward Stage E since it did not feel like "aversion" with everything being sold off en masse as is typical of a true bottom.

Teresa Lo gives daily barometers of market internals on her proprietary site and she is showing that the new lows have not dropped sufficiently and have actually shown a little increase which is inconsistent with Mamis' observations of a market low.  He states on p.143: "A diminishing number of new lows as [the index] chalks up a lower low is a divergence telling us about an impending market bottom."  This has not happened yet.

Mamis' review of how to spot a market bottom:

Next up: what Mamis would say to buy when the market turns...

Oprahfication of Obama

If you read one article today about Obama, read this one by Kathryn Lofton... read the whole thing.   An excerpt:

First, you need a name.  Not just any name.  A weird name: a Biblical misspelling, maybe, or an invocation of some distant land.  No matter what: the name needs an O.  The O will come in handy when you need to summon a common sphere, encourage chanting, or design a gentle logo.  Never deny the utility of its replication, never avoid its allusion, and never miss a moment for its branding.  An O is a space anyone can fill with anything.

[...]

You will possess a preternatural ability to give people what they want, to know what they need, to sell what they will buy.  Prepare yourself for this.  You have to get over any anxieties about your own assimilation, incorporation, and amalgamation.  Be the commodity.  Put your O everywhere.  Your iconography is how you brace against the disappointments of your humanity.

[...]

You are, as everyone knows, a Protestant.  But you dabble in everything, shying not away from the Koran or kabbalah, Jewish professors or Eastern spiritual advisers.  You will entertain anything that might embolden your O.  You are the ambiguity of your epoch, the middle that makes the mass, the crossroads of a country that excited your youth, raped your ancestral continent, and claps now for your children.  You are a global distribution suffused with spiritual truth.  You are motivated with missionary zeal to convert everyone, unrelentingly, to change.  You make them believe their best lives are yet to come.  You make it impossible to look away, to hate, to dissent, or to change the channel.  You make us feel good, finally.  You are our redemption.  You are our favorite smile. And you are our satisfaction at the possibility of a secular that made it all so.

My take:  Any person who attains such high office must have an element of celebrity which smacks of gimick; they've all had it and previously the gimick has been divisive while Obama's has been inclusive.  This marketing of sorts has been Obama's advantage so far, but can also become his undoing if he is unable to fulfill the persona that has been created.  While I give President Obama high marks for his successful candidacy and the positive atmosphere that has imbued his campaign, at the end of the day the presidency is-- pardon the cliche-- a highly demanding job that will entail certain failures and sometimes success, even with the most well-meaning and capable people in the position.

Granted, the last eight years have been disastrous largely because of the incompetence of the chief executive who inherited every advantage yet squandered them all, but Obama's intelligence and charisma and competence hardly guarantee success.  Hope is but a word, and the work ahead looks daunting.  If this mess can indeed be fixed, it will take all of us... in addition to great leadership.

And by all appearances, this leadership, nascent as it is, seems the greatest of my lifetime.

(h/t WW)

"Let it Ring"

Aretha Franklin at the Inauguration

Mr. Potter attends Obama's Inauguration

Despite his advanced age, the star of It's a Wonderful Life made a grand appearance today at the Inauguration of President Barack Obama.  Mr. Potter, shown today at right is escorted to the event by the grandaughter of Peter Bailey.

"I think it's great having such an iconic curmudgeon here to celebrate," said First Lady Michelle Obama upon their introduction.

"Good riddance to you, young missy," the aged Mr. Potter was heard mumbling.  "Now, go and get the people who are here to take office.  Go on, now."

Shown at left, Mr. Potter in his salad days as a banker in Bedford Falls.  "You know, I've always wanted to serve in public office, but my strengths have always been exploiting people to my own selfish ends, and that just doesn't comport well with community service," he had once famously said.

From MLK to BHO: "Now is the time"

My father Vince was the same age as Martin Luther King and by all appearances that was the end of their similarities yet one of my earliest memories of my father was his tears that April 1968 that King was assassinated. Vince grew up in a middle class household on the south side of Chicago and left the Catholic church in his 30's. He left the mainline Protetestant church in 1968 when the minister refused to officially acknowledge the loss of King as a great leader.

Every MLK Day I think of my dad. As a kid in the 1970's I remember the rallies and picnics we attended for civil rights; the outings at the Unitarian Church to bring awareness. I wish I could say that we rallied every weekend, or that we spent time in jail due to protests, which we certainly did not. I remember the violence inflicted on black marchers at the hands of white racists in Marquette Park, the red-lining by realtors, the protests against bussing black kids into our schools. As a family we had little to gain or lose by the immediate cause of civil rights and my personal existence was sheltered from the repercussions of civil rights and its opponents.

But on a grander scale the movement has enriched our nation, and thus our own lives, in immeasureable ways. And my dad knew that. The sin is that it has taken so long and so much pain to achieve this moment.

Both King and Vince are gone. Tomorrow we will be inaugurating Barck Obama, a black man, as the 44th president of the United States of America. Obama is almost exactly the same age as myself and I wish my father were alive to see the continuation of the civil rights movement which he so solemnly supported just as so many of us also wish that Martin Luther King would be alive to celebrate his 80th birthday during this eventful week.

Barack Obama has not become president because he is a black man; he has become the president because he is the best person for the job. Like Jackie Robinson, the barrier has to be broken by an individual who is so starky qualified, so much better than the others, that he is launched into the role by an overwhelming sentiment. That is Barack Obama. Like Robinson, who entered Major League Baseball in 1947 as the first black player, Obama stands above the others who have vied for this position, and he possesses the demeanor to withstand the negativity.

Tomorrow we will go to the local theatre for the "Obama Inauguration Celebration" to watch my next president take the oath of office. An American celebration. And I will think of my dad. And I will think of MLK whose speech from four decades ago rings louder today than ever. Every word is pertinent to this moment.

"Another down leg coming..."

“There’s another down leg coming. Normally the market comes down in five legs. We’ve come down in two. I think we’re going to test those lows at the very least, and eventually probably take them out.”

--John Murphy, chief technical analyst at StockCharts.com and the author of three books on market analysis. 

Is your pension about to flop?

I had a discussion yesterday with a colleague about investments, pensions, Social Security and the possibility (probability) that our retierment years may be very different than what we have expected.

One strategy that we had discussed previously was that of changing jobs after qualifying for the company's ten-year pension in order to work for another entity to get a second pension, thus retiring with two pensions, plus Social Security.

This article discusses the risk in current pension funds that are not fully funded and rely on stock market returns for payouts.  Sure, we always figured Social Security benefits would be "revised", but now our pension, too?

Yikes.

"Du-u-u-d-e, that's sick!"

Adrenaline junkies in wing suits:

Let's go to the video.

(hat tip, JL)

Stunning disclosure by Bush official

Tell me how this advances the US' position in the world.  From the Washington Post:

The top Bush administration official in charge of deciding whether to bring Guantanamo Bay detainees to trial has concluded that the U.S. military tortured a Saudi national who allegedly planned to participate in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, interrogating him with techniques that included sustained isolation, sleep deprivation, nudity and prolonged exposure to cold, leaving him in a "life-threatening condition."

"We tortured [Mohammed al-]Qahtani," said Susan J. Crawford (at right), in her first interview since being named convening authority of military commissions byDefense Secretary Robert M. Gates in February 2007. "His treatment met the legal definition of torture. And that's why I did not refer the case" for prosecution.

[snip]

"For 160 days his only contact was with the interrogators," said Crawford, who personally reviewed Qahtani's interrogation records and other military documents. "Forty-eight of 54 consecutive days of 18-to-20-hour interrogations. Standing naked in front of a female agent. Subject to strip searches. And insults to his mother and sister."

At one point he was threatened with a military working dog named Zeus, according to a military report. Qahtani "was forced to wear a woman's bra and had a thong placed on his head during the course of his interrogation" and "was told that his mother and sister were whores." With a leash tied to his chains, he was led around the room "and forced to perform a series of dog tricks," the report shows.

This detainee, who is an alleged conspirator to murder, will likely go free after years of imprisonment without due process.  The Bush administration has condoned activity that achieves no purpose but to undermine our status as the purveyor of any moral authority.  We have emboldened the enemy, allowed bin Laden a safe haven, and have helped him to recruit extremists in a holy war.  Not only is this illegal, but it is in direct conflict with our national interests.  

Where are the indictments?

46 million people cannot be wrong. Right?

File this under "beating a dead horse" if you like, but this video is the most surreal thing I have ever seen. Remember that it is put out by an organization that is sympathetic to Sarah Palin and is attempting to portray her in a positive light.

And remember that 46 million people voted for her... for Vice-President of the United States... to serve with a 72 year-old cancer survivor as President. I know idiots like Sarah Palin exist, heck I see them every day, but my question is how-- why-- can she garner so much support. Can someone PLEASE explain her appeal to me?? Seriously.

Let's go to the video [not embeddable for some reason].

1. "Anonymous bloggers" also known as "they" spread rumors that Trig was not her baby. The horrors. My advice: get over it. "They" will always spread rumors about all kinds of things, such as someone being a Muslim who is not, or someone "palling around with terrorists"; if you're the prez, you ignore 'em babe. If you want a job where you're hermetically sealed from moronic criticism from "anonymous bloggers", then clean hotels rooms at the local Knight's Inn.

2. The "campaign", ie, her handlers and assistants, who are the "upper eschalon of powerbrokerin' and media", or the "they", forced her to do the Katie Couric interview against her better judgement. I can imagine going out to the family of a patient and saying, "Ya know, I didn't want to make that incision into your wife's and mother's aorta, and I knew it was the wrong thing to do also, but ya know how those silly scrub techs and nurses in the OR are, and gosh it just happened. The funeral home will be picking her up at 2 pm." Idiot.

3. It's really too painful to continue a critique of this video. While I'm heartened that Obama is president, it's very disheartening to think that 46 million people have such utter disregard for the job of president, or have such profound trust in someone merely because they believe Jesus rose from the dead, or want to overturn Roe v Wade, or want lower taxes or any other other convoluted rationale for voting for a moron. It's scary... but then again that is how George W. Bush got elected-- twice.

When someone asks why Sarah Palin just won't go away, the answer is that 46 million people voted for her. Unfortunately, she's here to stay.   I think that all 46 million should be forced to watch this interview on an endless loop for the next four years.  Also.

Here's Olbermann's priceless take:

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

"Textbook January Effect"

Small caps began a nice run the last week of the year which continued until today.  Is this pullback just the normal profit taking and short selling that comes with any double digit run?  Or is it the beginning of the return to November lows.  Let's look at the hourly graph:

The IWM is coming back from a six day run and is at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and close to the 50-hour MA.  This looks healthy to me.  We await the the nonfarm payrolls Friday after the lousy ADP employment report today and that seems like a reasonable bogeyman to blame for this pullback.  But I would argue that if we had no bad ADP number, the pull back would have happened anyway and we would ahve blamed the Israeli's incursion or Russia cutting off the gas on Europe or Obama's haircut or something else.  The news is secondary.

Disclosure:  I have several small caps long  and opened up a hedge with TWM (short IWM) Monday looking for this pulllback.  I'm still think that Textbook January Effect with a positive month is in the offing, but be careful, if this breaks down past the 62% retrace-- $48 on IWM-- I'd be more concerned.

Predictions 2009

1. Geopolitics

a. A world financial center is rendered uninhabitable after a "dirty" nuclear bomb is detonated by a terrorist group.

b. Labor unrest in Eastern Europe and Asia leads to mass rioting, looting and martial law in several countries.

c.  President Obama successfully negotiates a Middle East accord that entails making the entire Levant a demilitarized zone which is patrolled by UN peacekeepers indefinitely.  The Israeli stock market doubles over the ensuing 6 months.

2. Domestic Politics

a. The Detroit city council asks President Obama to place the city under federal conservatorship in order to provide basic services and health care as social crises mount.

b. Several prominent Republican leaders form a new party which emphasizes moderate social values and fiscal responsibility.

3. Medical

a. A basic science breakthrough is announced in cancer therapy giving great hope to the treament of various types of malignancies.

b. Primary care physicians thoughout the USA protest decreasing reimbursement and many walk off the job leaving patients without care.

c.  Later in the year, Congress passes a universal health insurance plan devised by Zeke Emanuel.

4. Financial markets

a.  Municipal bonds rise in value as President Obama announces his desire to provide massive funding for urban renewal.

b.  Gold rises parabolically to $1400 per ounce due to worldwide monetary loosening and geopolitical crises.

c.  The FTC balks but finally allows the announced merger of Apple and Google which creates an innovation behemoth.

5. Popular Culture

a. Tony Shaloub takes over the Tonight Show Prime Time when Jay Leno abruptly quits.  

b. The surly comic Kathy Griffin marries a prominent diplomatic leader which raises concerns about her demeanor at official functions.

6. Sports

a.  The Chicago White Sox win 110 games on their way to their second World Series win in 4 years as they sweep the Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, League MVP and Manager of the Year awards.

b.  As a number 7 seed in the NCAA March Madness Tournament, University of Illinois Men's Basketball shocks everyone by beating UNC in the final to become National Champion.