Friday, October 24, 2008

Young people go for Johnny Mac ?

Odd.  For 18-24 year-olds now we have 74% intending to vote for John McCain versus 22% for Barack Obama.  Surprise?  The explanation given is a small sample size and inherent error, but that doesn't really explain it.

This race will go down to the last minute and we'll be counting ballots into the night.  As yet, nobody has offered any good reason to vote for McCain, maybe his health care plan which is the better among two terrible plans.

(h/t Eric)

1 comment:

delilah said...

I think that's the poll with the disproporionate number of evangelicals in it, which could account for its variance with most of the other polls taken at the time. I consider this poll to be an outlier along with the AP poll that used a really messed up sample for its likely voter model.

In the end, as I look at all the polls taken recently, there is a remarkable level of stability in the race. Beyond the topline results, most of the demographic groups are holding steady although individual polls may show different head to head results. Thus, if the current trend holds, and voter turnout is high, I do not think it will be a close race on Nov. 4.